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growth than other countries in this region at just 0.3 %. It is
assumed that measures to combat inflation will have a
strong influence on demand in Brazil.
In addition to the pandemic and the risks that have arisen
in its wake, the IMF sees numerous other macroeconomic
risks for 2022 that could lead to a slowdown in global growth.
These are basically rising uncertainty regarding geopolitical
risks, which could lead to a curtailment of international trade
relations, and an increase in risks as a result of climate
change. Major natural disasters are becoming more likely
and – as the range of extreme weather events on all continents
in 2021 showed – could threaten all economies.
Against the background of the global economic outlook,
further, albeit weaker, growth is expected in all regions for
the general chemical industry in 2022. The American Chemis-
try Council (ACC) forecasts a 3.8 % increase in global
chemical production in 2022, following growth of 5.8 % in
the previous fiscal year. A further increase in the growth
rate vis-à-vis the prior year is only expected for North America,
at 4.5 %. Here, growth in 2021 was below average at
1.8 % due to weather-related production losses. For all other
regions, the curve is expected to flatten to moderate low
to mid single-digit growth rates. The forecast growth rates
are based on the assumption that the bottlenecks in procurement
and transportation that occurred in 2021 owing to
the pandemic will ease again or not worsen further, lead-
ing to a stabilization of price levels.
On the basis of the economic and industry-specific
framework conditions, we assume that general demand in
the markets relevant for ALTANA will basically be positive,
although there will be regional and market-specific differ-
ences. The extent to which changes in storage levels along
the value chain will influence the demand for our divisions’
products largely depends on the expected short- to medium
term development. Stock-level changes can lead to significant
effects.
The development of crude-oil prices cannot be predicted
reliably. Following the enormous demand-driven price increase
in 2021, we expect the price to stabilize at a high level in
2022 and thus not to see any significant price reductions. The
availability, pricing, and consumption volume of chemical
products are subject to the influence of the crude-oil market,
albeit to different extents. In addition, the expectations of
market participants with regard to the future development of
oil prices can give rise to significant changes in inventory
levels along the chemical industry’s entire value chain.
As in the previous years, the exchange-rate relations
important for ALTANA may continue to show pronounced
volatilities in 2022. The development of regional interest
rates and economic output, as well as political influences, can
be of decisive importance for exchange-rate fluctuations.
Since the intensity and direction of the exchange rates cannot
be predicted, it is not possible to make concrete state-
ments about the influence. Concrete risks, as well as opportunities,
can result from a deviation of the actual exchange
rate development from our planning assumptions.
Expected Earnings, Asset, and Financial Situation
Expected Sales and Earnings Performance
On the basis of the expected growth of the global economy,
we anticipate a further positive development in demand
for our products and services in the 2022 fiscal year. Operating
sales growth, i. e. sales growth adjusted for exchange
rate and acquisition effects, is expected to be in the
mid-single-digit percentage range. Growth should be
driven by a further increase in volumes and positive price / mix
effects to safeguard margins.
As we do not expect any significant year-on-year exchange
rate effects in 2022, the nominal increase in sales is
expected to be at the level of the operating increase. The
76 Expected Developments