Group Management Report Products Safety and Health Environment Human Resources Social Commitment Consolidated Financial Statements 75
Despite suffering a sharp economic downturn at the beginning
of 2020, the country achieved slight growth overall
last year and this trend is expected to continue to a greater
extent in 2021. According to the IMF, the industrialized
nations will benefit to varying degrees from the global upturn.
In the U.S., 5.1 % growth is forecast for 2021, although
the crisis-related decline in total economic output in 2020
was only - 3.4 %, meaning that here, too, the losses from
the coronavirus pandemic will already be offset in 2021. The
IMF expects the Eurozone economy to grow by 4.2 %,
following a 7.2 % decline in 2020. For Germany, and for the
Eurozone as a whole, the IMF does not anticipate that
the contraction of the gross domestic product in 2020 will
be fully offset in 2021. The decrease of - 5.4 % in 2020 is
set against a growth forecast of + 3.5 % for 2021. Here, too,
the expected recovery depends on whether the pandemic
is fought successfully.
According to the IMF forecast, growth in the emerging
markets should exceed 6 % overall in 2021, significantly
outweighing the decline in 2020 (- 2.4 %). But the picture
varies greatly depending on the individual economies. This
development will be driven primarily by China. While China
achieved growth of 2.3 % in 2020 thanks to its successful
containment of the pandemic and is expected to grow by as
much as 8.1 % in 2021, India was hit much harder by the
pandemic in 2020. But there, too, the decrease in economic
output in 2020 (- 8.0 %) should be more than offset by
the growth rate forecast for 2021, which is expected to be
11.1 %. For the Latin American economies of Brazil and
Mexico, on the other hand, the sharp pandemic-driven decline
in 2020 is not expected to be fully offset by the growth
in 2021.
In addition to the global economic risks brought about
by the pandemic, the IMF and other leading economic
institutes see numerous other risks in their assessment for
2021 that could lead to a slowdown in global growth.
These are essentially the increasing uncertainty with regard
to geopolitical risks, which could lead to a restriction of
international trade relations, and the continuing uncertainty
regarding the trade dispute between the U.S. and China.
Against the backdrop of the global economic outlook,
a recovery with slight growth is expected for the chemical
industry in 2021. The American Chemistry Council (ACC)
forecasts a 3.9 % increase in global chemical production
in 2021, after an expected pandemic-related decline of - 2.6 %
in the previous fiscal year. The recovery is expected across
all regions, but for the chemical industry, too, it largely depends
on the further course of the pandemic in 2021, and
specifically on the availability, distribution, and effectiveness
of vaccines.
On the basis of the economic and industry-specific
framework conditions, we assume that the general demand
in all of the markets relevant for ALTANA will basically be
positive, although there will be regional and market-specific
differences. The extent to which changes in storage levels
along the value chain will influence the demand for our divisions’
products largely depends on the expected short- to
medium-term development. Stock-level changes can lead to
significant effects.
The development of crude-oil prices cannot be predicted
reliably. Following the major pandemic-driven fluctuations
in the price of crude oil in 2020, we expect to see a slight
increase in 2021, but no significant price fluctuations. The
availability, pricing, and consumption volume of chemical
products are subject to the influence of the crude-oil mar-
ket, albeit to different extents. In addition, the expectations
of market participants with regard to the future development
of oil prices can give rise to significant changes in
inventory levels along the chemical industry’s entire value
chain.
As in the previous years, the exchange-rate relations important
for ALTANA may continue to show pronounced volatilities
in 2021. The development of regional interest rates
and economic output, as well as political influences, can be