of decisive importance for exchange-rate fluctuations. Since
the intensity and direction of the exchange rates cannot
be predicted, it is not possible to make concrete statements
about the influence. Concrete risks, as well as opportunities,
can result from a deviation of the actual exchange-rate
development from our planning assumptions.
Expected Earnings, Asset, and Financial Situation
Expected Sales and Earnings Performance
On the basis of the expected recovery of the global economy,
we anticipate a positive development in demand for our
products and services in the 2021 fiscal year. We expect our
operating sales growth, i. e. sales growth adjusted for exchange
rate and acquisition effects, to be in the low to mid
single-digit percentage range. This growth should result
primarily from an increase in sales volumes.
The nominal sales increase in 2021 should be slightly
lower than the operating increase due to anticipated nega-
tive exchange-rate effects. However, the acquisitions already
agreed and potential further acquisitions may have a significant
effect on the growth rate. Schmid Rhyner AG was
integrated into the ALTANA Group as of March 2020 and
Aluminium Materials Technologies Ltd. from May 2020. In
addition, the activities of TLS Technik GmbH & Co. Spezialpulver
KG have started to be integrated into the Group in
February 2021. For the most part, sales in the divisions
should develop in the same range as Group sales.
In terms of the most important functional cost factors, we
do not foresee significant shifts of cost ratios in relation to
sales. For the cost of materials ratio, we forecast an increase
compared to the past fiscal year.
As regards personnel expenses and other fixed cost
items, we are planning a relative increase for 2021 that will
be slightly above the level of overall sales growth. This is
mainly due to the absence of the pandemic-related cost-saving
effects of 2020, particularly regarding trade fairs and travel
costs, as well as reduced personnel costs resulting from temporary
short-time working, among other things.
The EBITDA margin for 2021 is expected to decrease
and should develop toward the lower end of our strategic
target corridor of 18 % to 20 %. Absolute EBITDA is forecast
to be in the range of the previous year.
After 2021, we expect a further increase in growth
momentum with generally rising profitability.
Expected Asset and Financial Situation
There should not be any significant shifts in the balance sheet
structure in 2021. In the next two years, our capital expenditure
for property, plant and equipment and intangible
assets should be within our long-term target range of 5 %
to 6 % due to strategic growth projects. The absolute values
of net working capital should develop in line with the gen-
eral business trend.
Based on the anticipated business performance, we will
continue to generate a clearly positive cash flow from
operating activities in the coming years. In the short term,
however, this may lag behind the very good figures of recent
years. We will use the cash inflow primarily to finance
investments and further acquisitions beneficial to the development
of the ALTANA Group.
We expect the value management key figures for 2021
to decline compared to the past fiscal year. This will be
due primarily to a lower operating income and a simultaneous
increase in operating capital owing to the expected investments
and the acquisitions already completed in 2020. For
the relative and the absolute ALTANA value added, we
expect an amount close to the threshold for value creation,
as for 2021 the return on capital employed is forecast to
be at the level of the cost of capital of 7.5 %.
76 Expected Developments